AS EXPECTED – OVERNIGHT:  California Governor Gavin Newsom has apparently won a landslide victory in his fight to beat off a recall.  We caution that the vote count is incomplete, and that most of the votes counted thus far were submitted by mail.  It's assumed that most of these are Democratic votes.  However, we cam safely say that Newsom has kept his job, although the final totals may show a closer victory.  From CBS News: 

CBS News projects that the "no" vote will win the recall election, meaning Governor Gavin Newsom will remain in office. Newsom avoided an upset loss that would have sent Democrats scrambling ahead of the upcoming 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the 2022 midterm elections.

Less than one hour after polls closed, Newsom addressed supporters.

"'No' is not the only thing that was expressed tonight," he said. "I want to focus on what we said 'yes' to as a state. We said yes to science. We said yes to vaccines. We said yes to ending this pandemic.

We said yes to people's right to vote without fear of fake fraud or voter suppression."

The "no" vote won out with with most demographic groups: Majorities of both men and women, White and non-White voters, and voters of all age groups all voted against the recall.  

This was the sixth recall attempt against Newsom, but the first to reach the threshold of signatures needed to trigger an election. The recall began in February 2020, when a group called the California Patriot Coalition aimed to remove Newsom over his policies on COVID-19, homelessness, immigration and the state's taxes and affordability. 

The recall effort really took off after Newsom was spotted dining inside an upscale Napa Valley restaurant while his lockdowns on indoor dining were in place. 

The nation's most populous state was first to order statewide shutdowns at the onset of the pandemic, and Newsom was first to require vaccine and mask mandates for healthcare workers and teachers.

In the closing weeks of the campaign, Newsom and Democrats focused on his response to COVID-19 as well as national issues like  threats to women's rights in the wake of Texas' abortion law. 

Exit polling indicated COVID-19 was the main issue voters cared about: while Newsom's handling of the disease galvanized the recall movement, voters ultimately approved of Newsom's decisions in addressing it, and he was able to capitalize on that in the closing weeks of the race.  Roughly 30% of voters said COVID-19 is the most important issue facing California, followed by about a quarter who picked homelessness. The economy, wildfires and crime rounded out the top 5 issues.

For those voting "no" on the recall (keeping Gavin Newsom as governor), the coronavirus is the issue they see as the most important facing their state. For those voting "yes" on the recall (removing Newsom as governor), the economy and homelessness are the most important for them. Proponents of the effort to recall Newsom have been critical of Newsom's COVID policies, mostly arguing that they are too strict.

COMMENT:  California is overwhelmingly Democratic, by as much as two to one.  Newsom's opponents had to overcome that gap, and the money gap as well.  Newsom was vastly better financed than those who wanted him out.

The results are a warning to Republicans.  The year 2022, already hyped as a Republican year, will be a tough battle for us.  Nothing is guaranteed, nothing is in the bag.  There was a point in the California campaign when polls showed Newsom in serious danger of being escorted from his office.  But he and his party fought back vigorously, and no Republican candidate emerged who could out-charm the governor. 

Next up will be the governor's race in Virginia, to be decided this November.  The race is close, but the Democrat is winning.  And the Democrats will have the money to close big in the last week of the campaign.  Virginia used to be solidly red.  It then became purple, and then blue.  A key state in presidential elections, it should be seen as a major prize that we must win in the weeks remaining until election day.  Flipping Virginia would be exceptionally good for our morale.

September 14,  2021